probability n. 1.或有;或然性。 2.【哲学】盖然性〔在 certainly 和 doubt 或 posibility 之间〕。 3.【数学】几率,概率,或然率。 4.或有的事;可能的结果。 5.〔pl.〕〔美俚〕天气预测。 What are the probabilities 有几分把握? The probabilities are against us [in our favour]. 趋势对我们好像不利[有利]。 hit probability 命中率。 in all probability 很可能,大概,多半,十之八九。 probability of (missile survival) (飞弹不被击落的)概率。 The probability is that ... 大概是…,很可能是…。 There is every probability of [that] ... 多半有,多半会。 There is no probability of [that] ... 很难有,很难会。
Among others , the probability analysis approach has difficulty in deciding objective probability , and thus it is necessary to obtain subjective probability through expert empirical prediction , modify it by the bayesian formula and get a posteriori probability , and substitute it for objective probability in risk measurement and risk premium calculation 其中,概率分析方法在应用中就存在客观概率不易确定的难点问题,因此需用专家经验预测法得到主观概率后,利用贝叶斯公式加以修正并获得后验概率,再用后验概率代替客观概率进行风险的度量及风险收益的计算。